“If our warmer-than-normal weather continues into fall, the colors will be later, more subdued and spottier,” Collins said.

Globally, July was the 15th consecutive record warmest month, according to the Asheville office of the National Centers for Environmental Information. Since mid-February, average temperatures at the Asheville Regional Airport have ranged from slightly above normal to nearly seven degrees above normal. 

Along with the heat, summer months have been drier than normal throughout much of the mountain region. While dry weather in the spring and summer typically produces bright fall weathers, that’s only true if fall weather follows the normal trend of increasingly colder days and nights, Collins said. Some long-range forecasters are predicting a cold snap in mid-October, which would be good for producing colorful leaves, but it’s hard to say how that prediction will pan out. 

Fall colors emerge as the green chlorophyll in leaves breaks down to reveal yellow, orange and red pigments that had been masked by the green. The diversity of tree species and elevations in the mountains results in a long and showy color display. Colors at elevations over 4,000 feet will likely peak the weekend of Oct. 15-16; elevations at 2,500 to 4,000 feet will likely peak Oct. 22-23; and the remainder of October will be the best time to view lower elevations, Collins said. 

Collins, a professor in WCU’s Department of Biology, is taking over leaf forecasting duties from Kathy Mathews, a biology faculty member who has been evaluating leaf color potential for 11 years.